How Sandy will test Obama, Romney

(CNN) -- The hurricane that is blowing through the East Coast has threatened to create the kind of unpredictable havoc in this election that presidential candidates always fear. With all the scripted television spots and carefully choreographed live appearances, Hurricane Sandy is generating fear that might push the campaign in directions that nobody has expected.

Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama, and their circles of advisers, are likely glued to the weather coverage, trying to figure out which way this hurricane will make the election winds blow.

Social scientists have studied the impact of extreme weather on elections in American history, such as the ways in which Hurricane Andrew in Florida affected the 1992 contest between President George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton

Julian Zelizer

But the severity of the unfolding hurricane, which will stretch across several states if the worst predictions come true, might be more dramatic than anything we have seen in a long time. The hurricane will pose a huge test for Obama in the next few days, one that will make the debate in Denver look like child's play.

Politics: Sandy disrupts campaigns

As voters, particularly those who are undecided, deliberate over whom they should support, they will watch Obama as he navigates through the storm and the post-storm clean-up. The crisis offers an opportunity for him to act presidential in a way for which some voters are thirsting and to demonstrate the kind of command that has often been lacking.

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He does not want to be an echo to President George W. Bush's response to Hurricane Katrina, which became a symbol of incompetence.

At the same time, there is little that Mitt Romney can do, other than watch to see what people think of Obama's response, because any statement from him could easily become seen as political and offer little evidence of his own ability to lead.

The storm has already forced the campaigns to alter their short-term strategies. Already, both campaigns have canceled events in key states such as Virginia that are in the eye of the storm.

Romney will certainly have to pull some of the television spots that he has been getting ready to unleash in the final days of the campaign. Romney's strategy has focused on saving for a last-minute advertising blitz for which he planned to unload his campaign's coffers. Republicans didn't count on a storm getting in the way.

Axelrod: Storm makes campaigning harder

Presidential politics and the storm

Jersey Shore braces for hurricane

As Americans watch to see their fellow countrymen and women struggling through a crisis, they won't want to be bombarded with 30-second attack ads.

The Romney campaign will have to quickly think of ways to redesign their ads in certain states so that they fit the moment and provide voters with hope about new leadership rather than take the risk of generating criticism of the GOP being too petty and political, as occurred with Libya. Romney's team will have to redirect some of their energy toward states not affected, leaving the airwaves silent in the other states, waiting to see whether Romney has the momentum that can carry him.

Crowley: Sandy introduces big unknown into campaign

There is also the effect Sandy will have on the media, which already has focused primarily on the weather and much less on the presidential campaign. This gives candidates less space and time to influence events. Ordinarily, this would be a valuable time, a period when campaigns have one last week to shape voters' preferences, but this will become extraordinary difficult.

If electric power fails and people become preoccupied with personal hardships, there will be less time to focus on politics and it's possible that voter perceptions might be frozen into place.

Finally there is the big question of voting behavior. How will severe weather affect voters in states such as Virginia?

Many observers expect that this could depress voting in lower-income areas, which are often badly affected and which have the least resources to recover, a development which would naturally hurt Democrats. It also has caused cancellations in early voting that might have benefited Obama's vote total.

Another unpredictable factor is the sheer anger and frustration that can come from a weather crisis like this, which might very well intensify the broader sense of malaise that exists in the electorate. Even to those who are not in the path of the hurricane, this could feel like one more punch in the face to a nation tired of waiting for real economic recovery.

We can hope the most dire predictions about Hurricane Sandy will be wrong. But if they are not, the presidential candidates will face a massive test. Both candidates will need to scramble to make sure they handle it well.

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As Sandy descends, tips from Katrina survivors

President Barack Obama steps off Air Force One on Monday, October 29, upon arrival at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland. Obama canceled his appearance at a campaign rally in Orlando, Florida, and returned early to Washington to monitor the response to Hurricane Sandy.

(CNN) -- Hurricane veterans know when a bad one's coming. It's like those who feel the barometric pressure drop of approaching storm systems in their bones. I got the vibe midweek.

So I asked my friends on the Gulf Coast, hardy survivors of Hurricane Katrina, what advice they would share with those in Hurricane Sandy's path. But I didn't want the usual flashlight, batteries, water, generator, gasoline tips. Tell them something they don't know, I asked, something that helped get you through.

Kathleen Koch

Here's what they said:

• Outdoor solar lights can be brought in at night to light the indoors.

• When you make a video of your home for insurance purposes beforehand, open drawers and closets so the contents are visible.

• Have a tire plug repair kit and pliers to pull out nails or screws, since debris in the roadway causes flats and leaks that are tough to repair when everything is closed.

• Extend your cell phone battery's life by texting instead of calling and turning off Internet/Wi-Fi/Bluetooth/GPS connections.

• Bank safes and safe deposit boxes are not waterproof. During flooding, items left in them may be damaged and not accessible for weeks.

• Have thick tarps and roofing tacks in case you lose shingles from the wind.

What I didn't expect was the advice of a different nature that many added after their practical tips:

• Faith and the knowledge that no matter what, your life and the life of your family is more important than any material possession you may have.

• Keep a positive attitude and help your neighbor!

• Remember to have patience with your family, friends and neighbors. ... Work together and share your resources.

• Talk to each other. Share old stories. Some of the best relationships were made in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, as neighbors discovered new friends next door and grew closer helping one another through a trying time.

Northeast braces for Hurricane Sandy

Bloomberg announces evacuation

MD governor.: Stay home, hunker down

• Read a book.

Keep a hurricane preparation checklist

These are heartfelt suggestions from those who know what it's like to lose everything all at once. Disaster has a way of focusing the mind and leveling the playing field. Doctors and bankers stood next to mechanics and janitors in food lines in my Gulf Coast hometown of Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, in the weeks after Hurricane Katrina.

Such brutal shocks to the system are inevitable. No one can stop them, though human beings prefer to imagine we are omnipotent. We have access to virtually anything with the click of a mouse or a tap on our smartphones. We can Skype with someone on the other side of the world. We can land a rover on Mars and find proof of ancient rivers. We can do anything -- except control Mother Nature.

We don't like that, because it forces us to accept that we are vulnerable. Nations, states, cities and individuals wisely invest time and money on prevention efforts, but we can't really predict when, where and how the effects of nature at its worst will be felt.

What we can control is our reaction. And researchers report that contrary to popular myth, during disasters most people don't adopt an "every man for himself" attitude. Most react with responsibility and concern for their neighbors. I have seen it myself, over decades covering blizzards, floods, hurricanes and more.

Nearly five years after Hurricane Katrina, I was present at a remarkable discussion between the mayor of Bay St. Louis and his wife. Most of the town's homes and businesses were heavily damaged or destroyed in 2005 when the monster storm's 30-foot surge, sustained 125 mph winds and hopscotching tornadoes roared through. But the town and its people recovered.

"It was amazing. It really was," said Eddie Favre of the spirit of kindness, generosity and selflessness that prevailed in the months after the hurricane. "It would be nice to reclaim some of that patience and understanding. I wish we could go back to it."

"I feel bad saying it, but I really miss it," agreed his wife Jan. "We were all so close."

Times of disaster reveal not just our human fragility, but our strengths. It is at times like this that we learn what we are made of. People come together, share what they have and accept help from others. Suddenly differences that once seemed insurmountable turn out to be quite insignificant. The worst of times can bring out the best.

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Hurricane Sandy intensifies, has 90 mph sustained winds

Flooding at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia.

Flooding in front of student dorms at Old Dominion Universit

 

[Updated 11:42 a.m. ET] Atlantic City is under extremely heavy flooding in many areas, police tell CNN.
The tide is starting to go down, but when Hurricane Sandy makes landfall tonight, officials expecting flooding to become far worse, the city police department said.
[Updated 11:41 a.m. ET] More than 35,500 customers of United Illuminating in Bridgeport, Connecticut, will lose power around noon when a power station will be compromised by floodwaters, CNN affiliate WFSB reports.
[Updated 11:32 a.m. ET] President Obama will deliver a statement after his White House Situation Room briefing on Hurricane Sandy at 12:45 p.m. ET, according to a release from the White House.
[Updated 11:28 a.m. ET] The Delaware Emergency Management Agency calls this “a pretty vivid visual example of why you should not be venturing out on the roads in Delaware" durring Hurricane Sandy. Level 2 driving restrictions are in place in the state.
The agency posted the photo on its official Facebook page.

A flooded Delaware road Monday morning.

[Updated 11:18 a.m.] The National Weather Service is reporting 24-foot seas off New Jersey.
Connecticut is banning trucks from highways, Gov. Dan Malloy announced. Highways will also be closed to all vehicles beginning at 1 p.m. “Wind gusts will soon exceed 50 mph; travel is dangerous,” he said on Twitter.
[Updated 11:10 a.m.] Power officials were reporting nearly 45,000 customers without electricity across 10 states on Monday morning.
[Updated 11:07 a.m.] Hurricane Sandy has begun flooding areas of Norfolk, Virginia. This video was posted on YouTube.

[Updated 10:57 a.m.] See NASA's 3D image of Hurricane Sandy:
Airlines have canceled thousands of flights ahead of Hurricane Sandy, and stranded travelers shouldn't expect any relief until the weekend, CNNMoney reports. [Updated 10:51 a.m.] NASA will be providing live views of Hurricane Sandy from space.

[Time Correction] Live views of Hurricane Sandy from the coming up on NASA TV at 12:45PM ET. Watch live: nasa.gov/ntv

 

[Updated 10:49 a.m.] The impact of Hurricane Sandy will be big enough to lower the country’s gross domestic product, economists tell CNNMoney.
The losses can’t yet be calculated, but will include billions in property damage, lost business, lost stock market trades, and more.
[Update 10:46 a.m. ET] If you're in the storm's path, the Department of Homeland Security wants you to take steps to conserve your cellphone's power.

[Update 10:42 a.m. ET] Hurricane Sandy intensified on Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center said. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 mph with gusts to 115 mph.
[Update 10:38 a.m. ET] To prepare for the possibility of flooding, New York officials are closing two tunnels into Manhattan and calling for the deployment of 1,000 additional National Guard troops, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.
The Holland Tunnel and the Hugh L. Carey Tunnel are “prone to flood” and will close at 2 p.m. Monday, Cuomo said.
[Update 10:33 a.m. ET] The city of Hoboken, New Jersey, is prohibiting the use of personal vehicles after 4 p.m. ET, CNN affliate WABC reports. The station also says streets near the Atlantic City boardwalk are beginning to flood and tidal waters are crossing the main oceanfront road in Cape May, New Jersey.
[Update 10:28 a.m. ET] Chase and Citibank are waiving overdraft, ATM and late fees for customers in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, Time.com reports.
[Update 10:15 a.m. ET] All public transportation services in Boston will be suspended at 2 p.m. Monday.
[Update 10:06 a.m. ET] The Connecticut Department of Transportation has ordered the closure of all state highways as of 1 p.m. ET.
[Update 10:02 a.m. ET] Flooding begins in Manhattan:

East River, much more subdued than Hudson today, begins cresting over Pier11, east side of Manhattan

[Update 9:57 a.m. ET] Waves are crashing ashore near the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge in Brooklyn, New York.
[Update 9:51 a.m. ET] Power officials now say Hurricane Sandy could affect 60 million people across the eastern U.S., an increase of 10 million from what was forecast on Sunday.

[Update 9:48 a.m. ET] Wind gusts could reach 80 mph this afternoon and into the evening in New York City, the National Weather Service says.
[Update 9:27 a.m. ET] Early flooding in the Philadelphia area:

My parking lot is now turbulent. 

 

[Update 9:21 a.m. ET] The U.S. Coast Guard has rescued 14 people from the tall ship HMS Bounty, but two are missing, a Coast Guard official tells CNN. The ship was without propulsion and taking on water off North Carolina.
[Update 9:15 a.m. ET] NASA captured an infrared image of what Sandy looked like overnight as it moved up the East Coast.

[Update 9:07 a.m. ET] Hurricane Sandy has shut down concerts in the New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia area, MTV reports.
[Update 9:02 a.m. ET] Flooding has begun in Ventnor City, New Jersey, about 60 miles southeast of Philadelphia.

[Update 8:46 a.m. ET] Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy says the high tide at midnight has the potential to cause "unprecedented damage."

“The potential loss of life and loss of property in Connecticut, if these numbers are hit, will be extremely high,” he told reporters. “This is the most catastrophic event that we have faced and been able to plan for in any of our lifetimes. And we continue to do anything in our power to be ready.”
[Update 8:39 a.m. ET] The storm is apparently breaking up parts of  the Atlantic City boardwalk.

35 foot section of Atlantic City Boardwalk floating down what used to be St. Katherine's place 

 

[Update 8:32 a.m. ET] Forecasters expect Hurricane Sandy to slow down after the center of the storm makes landfall late Monday or early Tuesday. And Richard Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center, said he’s “really concerned.”
“Because of the combination of that and the large size, this will be a long duration event for many people along the coast and inland, and a lot of life-threatening hazards here,” he said.
Powerful winds, heavy rainfall and flooding are likely.
“This is going to be a big problem for a lot of folks,” he said.
Virginia's Department of Emergency Management is warning of blizzard conditions in two counties until Wednesday.

[Update 8:23 a.m. ET] Hurricane Sandy is affecting air travelers around the world, including flights from airlines based in the Middle East and Australia.
[Update 8:07 a.m. ET] Officials in New York City are keeping a close eye on how high the seawater is rising, Con Edison spokesman Alfonso Quiroz said.
Since many of the city’s electrical cables are underground, flooding could cause significant damage.
“If the water gets too high, we will preemptively shut down some pieces of equipment…because it is easier for us to make restoration once the water goes down,” Quiroz said.
[Update 8:05 a.m. ET] The Coast Guard says the weather is preventing it from launching a rescue operation for the crew of the 180-foot, three mast tall ship HMS Bounty, which was taking on water and without propulsion in the Atlantic off North Carolina. The 17-person crew is in two lifeboats and wearing cold-water survival suits, the Coast Guard says. See the report from CNN affiliate WTKR.
[Update 7:58 a.m. ET] The National Hurricane Center's 8 a.m. ET update shows no changes in Hurricane Sandy since the 5 a.m. ET update.
"Sandy now moving north-northwestward and accelerating...expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and coastal hurricane winds plus heavy Appalachian snows," the forecast advisory said.
Sandy's maximum sustained winds remain at 85 mph. It is a Category 1 hurricane.
[Update 7:51 a.m. ET] The dangers from this storm extend far from the East Coast. The National Weather Service says wave heights could reach 28 feet in Lake Michigan on Monday night. They could hit 31 feet on Tuesday.
[Update 7:40 a.m. ET] U.S. stock exchanges will be closed Monday as Hurricane Sandy bears down on New York. Read the CNNMoney report here.
[Update 7:34 a.m. ET] Delaware Gov. Jack Markell called on residents to follow the state’s driving restrictions, which went into effect Monday morning as Sandy approached.
“The biggest concerns, the rain and the wind together make driving conditions absolutely miserable so we put in a driving restriction today,” he told CNN.
The restrictions say that only essential personnel can drive as of 5 a.m. Monday.
He also said people could be without power “for some period of time” after the storm and that “those who did not (evacuate), we’re afraid may find themselves cut off.”
[Update 7:22 a.m. ET] The 17-member crew of the tall ship HMS Bounty has abandoned the vessel in the Atlantic Ocean 90 miles southeast of Hatteras, North Carolina, CNN affiliate WTKR reports.
[Update 7:19 a.m. ET] Newark, New Jersey, Mayor Cory Booker just told CNN's Soledad O'Brien:

"My biggest concern is just people not taking it seriously and not taking the proper precautions. We still have some time for people to get ready... We anticipate there could be many days without power afterward."

[Update 7:13 a.m. ET] President Obama has canceled a campaign event in Orlando on Monday to stay at the White House and monitor federal storm preparations.
"Due to deteriorating weather conditions in the Washington area, the president will not attend today's campaign event in Orlando. The president will return to the White House to monitor the preparations for and early response to Hurricane Sandy," White House press secretary Jay Carney said in a statement.
Read CNN's Candy Crowley on how Hurricane Sandy is affecting the presidential campaign.
[Update 7:04 a.m. ET] Some people have not heeded evacuation orders and are putting emergency responders in rescue situations, Delaware's governor says.

Ntl. Guard, local fire comp. & police are responding to people who didn’t evacuate & need to be rescued from flooding. 

[Update 6:45 a.m. ET] Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley tells CNN's Soledad O'Brien that power crews from as far away as Texas and Mississippi are in his state and prepared to make repairs to its power grid.
[Update 6:25 a.m. ET] Delaware's governor has ordered all drivers other than those providing essential services to stay off the state's roads today, CNN affliate WBOC reports.
[Update 5:59 a.m. ET] MegaBus has canceled numerous services in the Northeast through noon on Tuesday and is offering customers booked on other trips through Tuesday in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and the District of Columbia the chance to reschedule at no charge. Here is the full list of cancellations.

[Update 5:50 a.m. ET] Amtrak has suspended nearly all service on the Eastern Seaboard for Monday, according to its website:

"All Acela Express, Northeast Regional, Keystone and Shuttle services are canceled for trains originating on that date. Also Empire Service, Adirondack, Vermonter, Ethan Allen and Pennsylvanian train services are suspended, along with the overnight Auto Train, Capitol Limited, Crescent, Lake Shore Limited, Palmetto and Silver Meteor trains.
Exceptions: The Maple Leaf (Trains 63 & 64), will operate only between Toronto, Ontario, Canada and Albany-Rensselaer, N.Y., rather than originating and terminating at New York City; the Carolinian (Trains 79 & 80), will operate only between Charlotte and Raleigh rather than originating and terminating in New York City; the Silver Star (Trains 91 & 92) will operate only between Jacksonville, Tampa and Miami, Fla., rather than originating and terminating in New York City. Piedmont service (Trains 73-76) within North Carolina will operate normally."

Further updates on Amtrak service will come after 6 p.m. Monday or as needed, the website said.
[Update 5:36 a.m. ET]  As Hurricane Sandy closes in on the Northeast, residents are scrambling to prepare. Amy Mueller Campbell told CNN affiliate WMUR she had to drive almost 30 miles - from Nottingham, New Hampshire, to Manchester, New Hampshire - just to find a five-gallon gasoline container. She'll use it to get fuel to power her home generator.
[Update 5:13 a.m. ET]  Hurricane Sandy is playing havoc with international air travel. London's Heathrow Airport says 45 outbound flights to New York, Newark, Baltimore, Washington, Boston and Philadelphia have been canceled. Another 12 inbound flights have been scrubbed.
[Update 5:12 a.m. ET]  The National Hurricane Center says "a little strengthening is possible" before Hurricane Sandy makes landfall late Monday or early Tuesday.
[Update 5:05 a.m. ET] Hurricane Sandy strengthened early Monday with winds of 85 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
[Update 4:49 a.m. ET] Anna Kate Twitty, a spokeswoman for the Red Cross, was just on CNN and said the organization has multiple shelters across seven states where evacuees can find "a safe place, a warm meal and emotional support." To find a shelter, go to redcross.org, call 1-800-Red-Cross or download the free Red Cross hurricane app for iphone and android users.
[Update 3:54 a.m. ET] The Coast Guard  is responding to a distress call from a ship that is part of the popular culture. The  HMS Bounty, a tall ship built for the 1962 movie "Mutiny on the Bounty," is taking on water off the coast of North Carolina - about 160 miles from the center of Hurricane Sandy.  The Coast Guard says it has “diminished search and rescue capabilities due to the storm.” Seventeen people are on board.
[Update 1:55 a.m. ET] Various primetime shows that are produced in New York (such as, "30 Rock," "Smash," "Elementary," "Person of Interest") are being shut down Monday, according to Deadline.com,  but the opposite appears to be the case with late night shows. Deadline says Letterman, who once taped a show during a blizzard, will go on - as will Jimmy Fallon.

We will be doing a new show tomorrow night no matter what

[Update 1:50 a.m. ET] The MTA has posted some incredible photos of a deserted New York on its Flickr feed. Sandbags piled on Broadway. Grand Central Terminal with not a soul in sight. An eerie feel.

[Update 12:50 a.m. ET] The National Hurricane Center says Sandy is about to make its turn toward the north.  The forecast map shows the storm hitting the Jersey shore.
[Update 12:35 a.m. ET] 1.2 million: That's the number of college students who will stay home Monday, according to a count by CNN's Chandler Friedman of colleges in the regions likely affected by the storm.
[Update 12:10 a.m. ET]  President Barack Obama has approved Connecticut, Pennsylvania and New Jersey's request for emergency declarations. Earlier, several other states also requested such declarations, and the president signed them as well.  Among them: New York and Massachusetts.

[Update 12:02 a.m. ET] The New York Stock Exchange has announced it will close all markets – not just floor trading operations – on Monday. The stock exchange rarely shuts down for weather-related emergencies: Hurricane Gloria in 1985, and a snowstorm in 1969 mark brought the exchange to a halt.
Read Sunday's updates
Follow CNN's full coverage of the potential "superstorm."

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