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Tuesday, November 6, 2012

21 moments that defined the campaign and America

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The 2012 campaign in two minutes

Washington (CNN) -- Remember Clint Eastwood's empty chair? Romney's Etch A Sketch moment? Obama's disastrous first debate?
The 2012 presidential race has been filled with stomach-clenching gaffes, dumb tactical goofs, nail-biting close calls and, of course, Big Bird.
But, along the way, it has also given American voters insight into the personalities and priorities of the men who would be president.
Will the next president have a fire in his belly? Or will he get caught behind closed doors dissing nearly half of the electorate? Does it matter that he thinks "you didn't build that?" Or is it OK that he likes "to fire people?"
But today is Election Day. No more polls. No more debates. The decision is now in the hands of the voters.
Here's a look back at some of President Barack Obama's and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's biggest moments in this political thrill ride:
Romney likes 'to fire people' | January 9, 2012: Romney's comment that he "likes being able to fire people" brought immediate attacks from his rivals and even a mocking ringtone. The candidate later told the Wall Street Journal that it was one moment that makes him "try and be a little more careful in what I say."
War on women | January-March: A federal mandate requiring religious institutions to offer contraception insurance coverage to employees sparks a "war on women" fight between Democrats and Republicans. The gender wars, women are more than half of the electorate, bled into congressional hearings, the campaigns and talk radio.
Etch A Sketch | March 21, 2012: Senior Romney aide Eric Fehrnstrom caused quite a row when he said on CNN's "Starting Point' that the fall campaign is "like Etch A Sketch. You can shake it up and we start all over again." The statement would haunt the Romney camp for the rest of the campaign as both his primary challengers and the Obama team pounced on the statement as proof of Romney's flip-flopping on issues.
Presumptive nominee | April 10, 2012: Romney became the presumptive nominee after his closest rival, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, suspended his campaign. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas continued their long-shot bids, but both would drop out by the convention.
DREAM Act-lite | June 15, 2012: In an election-year policy change, the Obama administration announced it will stop deporting young illegal immigrants who entered the United States as children if they meet certain requirements. Critics called the move a cynical ploy for Latino voters, while supporters heralded it as a step to institute a key portion of the DREAM Act.
Obamacare upheld | June 28, 2012: The U.S. Supreme Court upholds the Affordable Care Act, Obama's signature health care reform legislation and a law that cost both he and congressional Democrats tremendous political capital. The Obama campaign saw the move as a tremendous legal victory; the Romney campaign vowed to work to dismantle parts of the law it doesn't like.
Romney's overseas trip | July, 2012: Despite his earlier pledge to watch what he says, Romney made verbal gaffes in questioning London's ability to host the Olympics to angering Palestinians by suggesting Israel's culture played a role in its economic success. The ensuing fallout lent a disastrous air to the remainder of his trip to Europe and the Middle East.
'You didn't build that' | July 13, 2012: When Obama told a crowd in Roanoke, Virginia "if you've got a business, you didn't build that; somebody else made that happen," the comment set off a chorus of cries from conservatives and Republican-leaning business owners. Obama later said he regretted the "syntax" of his comment. However, the phrase also became a rallying cry for GOP faithful, sparked campaign ads and became a new catchphrase -- "We built it" -- emblazoned on T-shirts, bumper stickers and signs.
Biggest lead | August 8, 2012: Just weeks before the Democratic and Republican national conventions and following Romney's verbal slip-ups abroad, Obama opened up his widest lead against the GOP presidential hopeful in the CNN Poll of Polls, 49%-43%.
Picking Paul Ryan | August 11, 2012: Romney gave his campaign a boost and thrilled conservatives when he chose Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate. The 42-year-old congressional budget hawk is the first member of Generation X named to a presidential ticket.
Eastwood's empty chair | August 30, 2012: Actor and director Clint Eastwood's baffling monologue to an empty chair at the Republican National Convention caused no short amount of head scratching, late night talk show jokes and social buzz. His chair routine also upstaged Romney, who gave his convention speech later that night.
Bill Clinton's speech | September 5, 2012: Speaking of upstaging, former president Bill Clinton's energetic speech at the Democratic National Convention thrilled party faithful and, in many ways, upstaged Obama own more subdued address.
Benghazi attacks | September 11, 2012: When U.S. Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens and three others were killed in Benghazi, the subsequent fallout led to an administration apology and was fuel during the presidential debates. Republicans, including Romney, criticized the administration's initial blame for the attack (mobs angered by an anti-Muslim movie) and for failing to properly recognize the security threat in the region. The administration pointed to incomplete intelligence reports for its early remarks.
The 47% | September 17, 2012: In one ill-fated fundraiser, Romney managed to offend Palestinians, Latinos and nearly half of American voters, some of the same people he's counting on for support at the polls. A surreptitious recording made during a May 17 private fundraiser at the home of Sun Capital executive Marc Leder was leaked to the media and included, among other comments, Romney refering to the U.S. government-assistance dependent "47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what." Romney immediately dropped in the polls.
Obama's debate disaster | October 3, 2012: Obama blew it in the first presidential debate by failing to actively engage Romney on key points and looking down, as if he was bored or annoyed. His lethargic debate performance was criticized by politicos and late night television hosts alike. Meanwhile, Romney's apologies to Big Bird that he would trim funding to PBS led to Internet memes and even a Million Muppet March on the National Mall. Still, Obama immediately dropped in the polls.
Romney's comeback | October 9, 2012: Following US Obama's disastrous first debate performance, Romney leapt ahead of Obama in the CNN Poll of Polls for the first time in the campaign, 48%-47%. The move signaled a tightening of the race and a clear indication that the candidates would remain neck and neck until the very end.
'Binders full of women' | October 16, 2012: In the second debate, Romney's comments about using "binders full of women" while Massachusetts governor to help diversify his cabinet led to Internet quips and criticism. Obama, on the other hand, gave a much livelier performance in this debate.
'Bayonets and horses' | October 22, 2012: In the third presidential debate, an energized Obama proved once again that he was full of sharp tongued-snark when he lashed Romney by explaining the military uses fewer "bayonets and horses." The line was an attempt to paint Romney as someone who is out of his depth on the nation's military strategies.
Voting early | October 25, 2012: Obama became the first presidential candidate to vote early, and his stop at a polling center in Chicago reflected his campaign's strategy to get suppoters to cast ballots ahead of November 6.
Superstorm Sandy | October 29, 2012: Sandy slammed into the East Coast killing more than 100 people, leaving millions without power and devastating the homes and property of thousands of others. In the storm's aftermath, both candidates halted campaigning and tread carefully in the days that followed so as to not politicize the devastation. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's praise of the Obama administration's handling of post-storm efforts further complicated the Romney camp's campaigning following the storm.
America votes | November 6, 2012: After billion of dollars, thousands of ads and years of campaigning, America finally gets its chance to decide.

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State by State, Battle for Presidency Goes to Voters

Jim Young/Reuters
VIRGINIA Cheers for a Mitt Romney visit on Monday in Fairfax.
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WISCONSIN A rally for President Obama on Monday in Madison.
For the third time in the last four presidential campaigns, the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees went into Election Day close in the national polls, with not one of the major opinion surveys giving President Obama or Mitt Romney a lead of statistical significance.
But presidential races are decided in the states, and the nation will get an answer to the opposing cases for victory that each candidate has made for so many months. It will finally know, as one of Mr. Obama’s top aides has put it, “which side is bluffing” and whether battleground-state polls, which have given Mr. Obama a slim but consistent edge where it matters most, accurately foretold the outcome. As the night unfolds, clues to the outcome will spill out well before the votes are counted.
If exit polling indicates that Mr. Romney is substantially exceeding the share of the white vote that went to Senator John McCain four years ago, that will be a sign that he is replicating the coalition that gave President George W. Bush a second term. If Mr. Obama can win Virginia, a battleground with an early poll-closing time, Mr. Romney’s options for getting an Electoral College majority will be substantially reduced. And in Ohio, the vote in Hamilton County, which Mr. Obama and Mr. Bush both won, could signal who takes the state.
On Monday, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama went on traditional last-day blitzes across the most important swing states, overlapping in the place that is expected to have the lead role in Tuesday’s drama, Ohio.
For Mr. Obama, it was the last day of campaigning in a career that took him in a few short years from the Illinois State Senate to the United States Senate and, finally, the White House. For Mr. Romney, it was to be the end of his seven-year quest for the presidency. But late Monday, his aides announced that he would make one last pass at Pennsylvania and Ohio, with stops in Pittsburgh and Cleveland on Tuesday.
Some Republicans said they believed the final push was needed given that Mr. Romney was going into Election Day without any of the top competitive states definitively in his column. A senior party strategist lamented that for all the optimistic signs, there was a preponderance of evidence “cutting against us.”
Democrats will be on high alert on Tuesday for what they consider attempts to suppress the vote, while Republicans make a case that strict voter identification rules and counting procedures be followed to guarantee the integrity of the outcome. Batteries of lawyers are standing by for both sides in the swing states, especially Ohio, where the skirmishing was already under way.
The rise of early voting across the country meant that even before Election Day, more than 30 million Americans had cast their ballots. Those results will be reported Tuesday night, providing a new element for viewers at home: many states will report initial results that encompass far more votes than ever before.
Now, as the campaigns say, it is all about turnout. But beyond the cliché, the main question is not only how many but also who.
Mr. Romney’s campaign built its theory of winning around the idea that turnout for Mr. Obama will fall well below his 2008 tally. The Obama campaign did not entirely disagree, but believes it has rebuilt his coalition of women, Hispanics, blacks and young voters just enough to win.
Here is a guide to what to look for as the night progresses to know who is up, who is down and whether, should there be delayed counts, recounts and court challenges, Election Day becomes Election Week or — gasp! — Month. (All times below are Eastern.)
At 7 p.m., when the voting ends in Virginia, an early clue to whether the night will be a long one or a short one may emerge. Both sides pursued the state’s 13 electoral votes tenaciously, but they are more central to the strategy of Mr. Romney, who made two stops there on Monday. 
If Mr. Obama carries Virginia, the path to victory narrows considerably for Mr. Romney, who will have to all but run the table of the remaining contested states. A senior adviser to the Romney campaign said the state’s importance is greater than its electoral votes because the outcome there could set the tone for the rest of election night.
VIRGINIA Audience members in Sterling showed their support for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who joined Tim Kaine, the Democratic candidate for the Senate, in a rally on Monday.

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A one-stop destination for the latest political news — from The Times and other top sources. Plus opinion, polls, campaign data and video.
OHIO Romney posters lined the walls in the Republican State Headquarters in Columbus. Mitt Romney’s campaign announced that he would make one last stop in the state, in Cleveland, on Tuesday.
Stephen Crowley/The New York Times
FLORIDA Mr. Romney greeted supporters in Sanford on Monday. He expects to win Florida, which has 29 electoral votes, making it the biggest prize on the battleground map.
IOWA Ray Benter, an Obama volunteer, canvassed on Monday in Des Moines. For six days he has opened up his home for volunteers to use as a headquarters for the get-out-the-vote efforts.

At 7:30, the polls close in Ohio, where the 18 electoral votes are critical to both men. The county-by-county tallies will be carefully scrutinized when the returns start rolling in. But a word of warning: campaign officials do not expect an outcome for several hours — at the least. And if Mr. Obama appears to take a commanding lead right out of the gate, Republicans can take heart in the knowledge that the early vote — an expected Obama strength — is counted first, with the ballots from Election Day coming in later.
If Mr. Romney carries Ohio, viewers should settle in for a long night. A Romney victory there could signal that the vaunted ground organization of the Obama campaign is faltering and that his Midwestern firewall is cracking.
The television networks — and their high-tech maps  will spotlight the three C’s of Ohio: Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati. The president is looking for a strong performance in Cleveland, which Mr. Romney is visiting Tuesday in the hope of shaving down Democratic margins. And Republicans are looking for strength in Cincinnati and its surrounding area of Hamilton County; when Mr. Obama won the county in 2008, he was the first Democrat in a generation to do so.
But if Mr. Obama wins Ohio, history will be on his side (no Republican has won the White House without Ohio), as will the landscape of swing states. With Ohio in his column, he could lose Colorado, Virginia and Florida and still defeat Mr. Romney by 281 to 257 electoral votes.
At 8, the voting ends in Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. If the television networks are not able to call Pennsylvania quickly, Democrats have reason to move to the edge of their seats. But with 29 electoral votes, Florida is the biggest prize on the battleground map. The Obama campaign is not counting on victory there, but Mr. Romney needs to win. Otherwise, his advisers in Boston believe that Mr. Obama will be re-elected.
But keep this in mind about Florida: the ballot in many counties is unusually long, running more than 10 pages in some areas of the state because of judicial elections and initiatives, which means voting could take longer. And long lines in Florida could mean a long night ahead for Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney.
At 9, the voting ends in Colorado and Wisconsin. The states together have 19 electoral votes — one more than Ohio — and some strategists believe that the states could be split by Mr. Romney (Colorado) and Mr. Obama (Wisconsin). But if both states fall in one campaign’s favor, that candidate is almost certainly heading to the White House.
At 10, the polls close in Iowa. Both campaigns carefully courted the state, with its six electoral votes. The president selected Iowa as the site of his final rally on Monday night, a decision that his advisers said was rooted more in the symbolism of the place, where his victory in the 2008 caucuses solidified his rise on the national stage.
The result will answer the question of whether the visit to Des Moines was a moment of nostalgia or a last minute scramble for support or both. more info

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